IITK Hungama Update...

As with any story, there are some interesting sidenotes that should get clarified as time goes on: the role of student representative- especially the President and the Sports secy; the fault of the actual eveteaser; the tendency of IITK administration to go to unfair extents to preserve IITK's holier-than-thou persona; the ability (or lack thereof) of IITK kids to stick together; and the mixing of personal rivalries in this whole thing.

This much I know for sure: nobody should be allowed to come into IITK, whack IITK people and then get away without being beaten up. DPs be damned- they fizzle out in 6 months anyway.

Again, if you've stuff to add to this, please feel free to email me.

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Interesting Sequence of Events at IIT Kanpur

In 80% of such incidents, this is when the kids run back to their rooms. Disciplinary proceedings are initiated against one and all- both the perpetrators and the victims. Great (but quiet!) discontent ensues. 6 months later, general sanity prevails and most of the unfair discplinary action is quietly dropped. This wasn't to happen this time.

With the help of security, the visiting morons were moved to Visitors Hostel before they were to be unceremoniously thrown out. This is when quite a few IITK kids showed up at VH gate, baying for blood. And not just the visitors' blood- also the DOSA's. There was an all-night dharna of sorts, which I am not sure who organized or, even, who thought of! These kids are certainly more gutsy than we were. But then again, even my brother's batch was more gutsy than mine, so apparently my batch's meekness was just a one-off thing.

In 20% of such incidents, this is when the Director shows up and, with some masterly use of saam-daam-dand-bhed, manages to frighten/cajole people into going back to their rooms. If he's really good- and SGD is!- the kids will go back feeling that the good and noble king (aka Director) will fix stuff and "take action". Apart from the disciplinary action, other promised remedial "action" is rarely taken. This incident was one-of-a-kind. Nothing the Diro said worked.

The kids used this opportunity to vent off their frustations over the DOSA's recent actions. The usual: sutta fine (imagine that! no ciggs!); limited motorcycle permits (what am I supposed to ride, bicycles and the tempo?!); room internet-access restrictions between midnight-8am (what is a young hot-blooded male supposed to do during then- sleep?!). There was nothing weird about these restrictions- most of them are not too big a deal. I support the sutta one- I suffered through too much second-hand smoke at IITK. And rickety old bicycles were a big part of the charm of IITK's campus. But such are college kids- if you say no to them you are being mean and unfair and illogical and what-not. Been there, done that (i.e. the bitching)

Anyways, the dharna-oing crowd didn't listen to the Director, nor the DOSA, nor the Gymkhana President, nor anybody else. The end result was that the visitors were unceremoniously thrown out. But more interestingly, the DOSA had to resign.

The first mail I got said that some Student Gymkhana officials (incl. President) resigned. It seems they didn't. The resignation of the President (and the Sports Secy) would've been good and proper- especially considering that the DOSA had to resign. The resignation of the DOSA was too much- SGD shouldn't have allowed it.

If anybody wants to update/correct me on what really happened (and the post-action action), please do email me!

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And the IgNobel Goes To....

Was at Harvard for this year's awards. They were really really fun. And they had a cool idea for handling speeches that go over the limit. A little girl in frocks and ponytails will walk up sweetly and in a sugar-sweet voice start parroting, "Please stop. You're boring me." Worked everytime.

I think they'll have the list of winners at the website pretty soon. Here's the ones I remember:

• Physics: the physics of the hoola hoop. An actual published article. For an encore, the authors plan to look at the "swallowing goldfish" phenomenon.
• Biology: the observation that herrings communicate by farting. Gives a whole new meaning to "you're talking out of your ass."
• Economics: the Vatican, for outsourcing prayers to India
• Peace: the Jap guy who invented Karaoke: for "teaching humans to tolerate others in new ways"
• Chemistry: to Coca Cola UK for purifying river water into Dasani mineral water. Unfortunately the purification rendered the water toxic in another chemical.

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Kashmir

I think India isn't going to give any significant chunk of Kashmir away-- just because we don't need to, as BBC and DaDude pointed out. So the final solution won't be very different from current situation. But the current status-quo isn't a solution-- there's no face saving measure for Pakistan to justify backing-off from the whole sponsoring-terrorism business. And I think India wants (or, should want) the Kashmir situation to be solved soon enough so we Indians (and others) can focus on other stuff, i.e., the econonomy and other puny things. So that means India'll need to seen as giving something. What should it give? A small chunk of land as an outright give-away? Like has been rumored recently. Or a larger chunk that gets full autonomy under India or, better for Pakistan, under the joint patronage of India and Pakistan. This is the intriguing scenario mentioned in the BBC webpage: mark out a relatively small region in the Kashmir valley and make it indepenedent in all but name.

I think giving Siachen off to Pakistan might be an interesting idea. Unless Siachen has security value for the rest of Kashmir Valley, it has little intrinsic value by itself. I doubt that the security value is too high-- controlling Siachen didn't do much for us in Kargil War. The benefit of giving off Siachen is that we're just losing a bunch of rock and ice which only excites crazy mountaineers. And Pakistan can feel happy that they actually got a chunk of land from India-- everybody knows that Siachen is dominated by the Indian army so it'll be a "real" giveaway (as opposed to giving away something that you don't really own, e.g., POK).

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YAICS

An interesting aspect of the Chinese lack-of-free-information deal is that the market is not very efficient. People go into ventures on a hear-say basis, leading to a somewhat lemmings-like behavior. Makes for spectacular booms and busts. This story is about the litchi glut in China. A very touching passage is near the end: the farmer is now rich enough (or the crop is cheap enough) that he doesn't save his best stuff for selling. He actually eats it himself. Kinda says good things about the economy, doesn't it?

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The "But" word

Why is it hard for everybody to condemn Beslan in unambiguous terms without blaming, in the same breath, Russia's Chechenya policy for this!! This guy, a Chechen, makes the point that Russians have devastated the Chechen homeland and that even Chechen kids have died and are dying. Of course, he goes on to say that this argument "does not" detract from the horror of terrorists killing hundreds of children.

But the whole point of mentioning the Russian mishandling of Chechenya is *precisely* to detract from the enormity of the Beslan massacre. Saying that the perpetrators of this "crime" (oh, the euphemism!) deserve to be punished sounds as if the guys just stole a bunch of car radios. Tavleen Singh makes a similar point.

An interesting counter-argument to what I've said is discussed in this article. The author says that the act of labeling someone as a terrorist (as opposed to an "insurgent", or even "gunman") involves an unwanted/incorrect act of judgment on the part of the reporter/newspaper. In other words, one man's terrorist is another's freedom fighter. There are two arguments that can be made against this.

The first argument is that moral relativism has its limits. Some terrorist acts are so heinous and target such a defenseless civilian population that there should not be any justification for them whatsoever. Beslan massacre is an example. So is 9/11. And so are the Mumbai bombings of 1993 and 2001. Indeed, my biggest grudge against lefties and the various human-rights organizations is that their condemnation of such acts is either non-existent, perfunctory, or peppered with a string of "but"s that make a mockery of the event and are just plain insulting to the victims. They immediately lose any credibility, in my opinion, to condemn anything else.

The second argument about labeling a terrorist as a terrorist is less theoretical. Despite their attempts to remain impartial, reporters/newspapers make moralistic labeling judgments all the time and such judgments are affected by the social milieu they are in. A child molester is called just that; not somebody who likes to explore child sexuality. Thus, the people who attacked WTC and the Pentagon are called terrorists simply because the world media is overwhelmingly influenced by the American people's preferences. And the Americans are very clear that the perpetrators of 9/11 were "terrorists" and nothing less. Nothing wrong with that, I'd say-- I too believe they were terrorists. However, is the pain suffered by Americans on 9/11 more than what the Indians have suffered because of Kashmir and the related acts of Islamic fundamentalism? How about the pain suffered by the Israelis? How about the pain suffered by the people of Moscow and Beslan? Clearly, everybody would like to label our respective opponents in these cases as terrorists while others may or mayn't agree. It then boils down to power play.

The side that has greater power over the media will get its labeling accepted. And here again the likes of Arundhati Roy bug me to no end. India's portrayal in the media (especially western media) is far less favorable than it could be. By the dint of a small vocal leftist intelligentsia, India's job of discrediting Kashmiri terrorism as just that - terrorism - has become harder than it needs to be. Pervez Musharraf doesn't need to repeat that Kashmiri terrorists are freedom fighters; there are enough Kuldip Nayars and Praful Bidwais and Arundhati Roys that will do the job for him. All of whom go conveniently silent whenever said "freedom fighters" selectively pick off Hindus. Sure, such attempts to get your labeling accepted is probably unfair. But the world is already an unfair place and somebody has to win. What would you rather read in the papers- "Kashimiri terrorists" or "Kashmiri freedom fighters"?

Sidenote: this whole anti-"but" tirade started after somebody said "yes, Godhra was wrong but what happened afterwards...". I am revolted by Gujarat riots-- I really hope they punish everybody involved, including Narendra Modi. The riots were inhuman acts about which no moral relativism should apply. However, why aren't others willing to similarly condemn the Godhra incident by itself, without a guilt-assuaging "but" involved ?

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I told ya so...

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The curse of cynicism...

I think it is safe to rule out the career-move option. This guy was United's president (remember, that's not CEO!) and United has 500-odd planes and is the world's largest carrier. He is now the head of a 20-plane outfit. Even if there's a bad job-scene for airline uber-executives and even if the Indian air-travel market is set to explode this guy could've done much better for himself.

So that leaves options (b) and (c). In India, there are 3 big(!) airline companies: Jet, Indian Airlines, Air Sahara. A professional manager would probably have big issues with the owners of each of them (Naresh Goyal, the Indian sarkaar and Subroto Ray 'Sahara', respectively). Since Jet is what keeps Naresh Goyal busy, he isn't going to hire a real CEO. Both the Indian sarkaar and Mr. Sahara sometimes dabble in other things so they might want a manager-type. Still, IA is the bigger of these two and would be, by far, the meatier job for anyone of Ronojoy Dutta's calibre. So, if it really were option (b), i.e. contributing to India's growth, IA's job would've suited him better. Assuming, of course, the babus at IA would've the sense to hire him.

So that leaves option (c) (pre-retirement chhota job). Or does it ? The problem is, this guy isn't that old. I did some digging around and found out that he graduated from HBS in 1980 (he is an IIT Kgp alum). Even if he were 30 then, he'd be 54 now-- not a retireable age.

Since it's probably better to be charitable, I'll assume that it's option (b)-- the guy really wants to do some good. Funny, I'd have thought that the Air Deccan model of ultra-cheap air travel would suit India better. So maybe Air Sahara will go into ultra-cheap mode and we'll see a price war? That then would be the thing to look for: if there is a price war, initiated by Air Sahara, Mr. Dutta has gone back to really work. If things just keep happening like normal, he's probably just preparing for retirement.

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Sensex Drops By 786 pts (at last count!)

Bloodbath at BSE, Sensex down 786 pts

• Market authorities first halted trading for one hour at 1015 hours as the market fell by over 550 points but the freeze was imposed again within minutes of recommencement as the downhill march continued. After recommencing trading at 1115 hours, it was closed within three minutes as the BSE fell further by 272 points to reach 4247.59.
• Biggest intra-day crash ever
• Market cap of Rs 2,00,000 cr lost since Friday

Rs 2000000000000 is about 44 billion in real dollars. It is also over 200 billion in PPP dollars. Just in case you though its just a "little drop". It is also over 15% of market capitalization. Its also over 10% of India's GDP.

Just for comparison, this is the combined State Domestic Product (SDP) of Mr. Sitaram Yechuri's shining beacons: Rs 8000 crores (West Bengal) + Rs 4000 crores(Kerala) = Rs 12000 crores. Those are probably old numbers. Lets round it up to, say, Rs 25000 crore. The market lost value worth 8 West Bengals and 8 Keralas. Hail our new leaders.

As per TOI's one-line flash, Manmohan Singh think's this is manipulated. Probably true. That also means, probably, the market will bounce back well too.

Links: http://www.nationmaster.com/country/in/Economy

http://www.macroscan.org/fet/aug03/fet100803SDP_1.htm

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Aarghh...

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The Glorious Uncertainties...

WaPo's editorial put it well:

"Although the reasons for this upset will grow clearer as voting data are analyzed, the dominant theory is not encouraging. Mr. Vajpayee is said to have been punished for the pro-market reforms that fostered India's high-tech boom; voters in the villages felt left out and took their revenge at the ballot box. This suggests that even the world's most successful economic reformers run big political risks. India conducted poverty surveys in 1993 and '94 and again in 1999 and 2000; over that period, the rural poverty rate fell from 37 percent to 30 percent, so the idea that the villagers have not benefited from India's growth is spurious. Given India's continued boom since 2000, poverty in the villages has almost certainly fallen further. Mr. Vajpayee apparently got no thanks for this.

India will now be governed by a coalition dominated by the Congress Party, the political vehicle of the Gandhi family. The current Gandhi is Sonia, the Italian-born widow of the assassinated former prime minister Rajiv, who was himself the son of the assassinated former prime minister Indira, who was the daughter of the former prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru."

Four generations of prime ministers- when will it stop! I guess one has to accept what a democracy comes up with, even if you think it is stupid. And being a non-resident Indian, the right to crib is even less, I think. After all, I didn't even vote.

Still, I get to rant since this is my blog. Since I get to rant, let me enumerate some of the things I want to rant about. The one thing I am worried about is the the Communists' greater strength. Their opposition to reforms, even if rhetorical, will be painful. And when it comes to privatization or labor reforms- it won't remain rhetorical. And those are one of the bigger issues remaining now. Congress has this horrible tendency of drinking its own kool-aid: rhetoric about bleeding hearts for liberalization-sufferers is fine. But you can trust the Congress to start believing its own rhetoric. And, of course, the communists still think Stalin lives and Cuba is showing it to the Big Bad Daddy. Hopefully, Sonia Gandhi will have the sense to have Manmohan Singh as F.M. and P. Chidambaram as Commerce Minister. Can they get Arun Shourie to change sides and keep managing Divestment Ministry ? That would be too much to ask for...

The other thing I am worried about is that Congress will have a different foreign policy just for the sake of being different- especially a turn towards the past. One of the finest performances of BJP government was its foreign policy. They got almost everything right. Right from the decision to perform the nuclear tests to the new oil diplomacy, Indian foreign policy is more sensible, more interests-oriented, less ideological and more pragmatic-- and even a little strategic. Does anyone even remember that Australia was the first country to call back their ambassador after the Pokaharan tests! Well, now they want to play cricket and hitch a ride on to the Indian economic gravy train. The only thing that they could've done better was to handle the Indian obssession of what the West, in general, and U.S., in particular, thinks of India.

"The Congress Party-led coalition is expected to swing back to traditional anti-Americanism, sounding off against the United States at the United Nations and perhaps challenging U.S. influence in the Middle East by launching its own peace initiative. All of which would test the Bush administration's reserves of forbearance and tact" (WaPo editorial again).

I thought that the issue of Sonia Gandhi being a foreigner wouldn't matter to me. But reading the news of celebrations in Italy hurt. After all, we do have a billion other candidates. And on top of that, Sonia is totally inexperienced- will she make a strong PM? Will the coterie return ? What about the famed "high-command" ?

There *are* some things that weren't so bad. BJP's loss in Gujarat, while lamentable in the general scheme of things, should be instructive to them. And as an IIT alum, I am glad the IIMs (and, potentially, the IITs) won't have the sword hanging over their head anymore.

On a related note, here's a crazy idea: India should cut loose its two most influential states - Bihar and U.P. OK, atleast Bihar. Let them fend for themselves- do not allow immigration in/out of them. No central govt money to/from them. These places are economic basket-cases anyway. Let them fix their own taxes and do their own services and build their own roads and what not. Let them declare independence if they want. Disclaimer: my home is in U.P. and I love the people there. I think it says something about the character of those two states that the bulk of Indian struggle for independence happened in these two states. But precisely because I am a native of one of these states can I say this without (and not take offense).

I just think that the general population of these states needs a big jolt and some education. They are stupid voters. How can an entire state re-elect Laloo Yadav so many times- especially given what he has done to that state. How can an erstwhile school-teacher (Mayawati ) amass Rs 10 crores (100 million) in a few years and still be referred to as the leader of dalits! A newspaper story suggested that the dalits vote for her because they think she can make them this rich too. Aaargh...its not even funny. These are states where if you try to fix the education system by cracking down on cheating, your opposition makes it a poll plank. And wins.

Once left to themselves, things will get worse for the people there. But they'll see other states having better governments and ultimately see the light. Once the voters of these states have sorted out their governments, they can come back and join in. Hopefully, the rest of India will have built enough wealth by then to share some with them. Didn't something like this happen with East Germany and West Germany ?

OK, I wasn't serious about this whole UP-Bihar thing. But I still think the stupid voters in these two states are one of Indian democracy's bigger problems.

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Iraq...

Given an enemy whose understanding of human rights is non-existent, the American administration only has to blame their moral absolutism for the fact that the world would rather focus on their human rights record, instead of their enemy's. The problem with moral absolutism is that it sets too high a standard: no American do any wrong, ever! And with any large population (the US army in Iraq, for example) you just can't sustain that. David Brook's article in NYT/IHT makes similar points. Praising Truman and Roosevelt's "rugged idealism", he says:

"They took a tragically ironic view of their situation. They understood that America can't defeat ruthless enemies without wielding power. But America can't wield power without sometimes being power without sometimes being corrupted by it. Therefore, America can't do good without losing its innocence."

In the case of Iraq, if America had gotten more people on their side (assuming the others agreed), they wouldn't have to fall in this trap where the moralistic arguments that justify the war, domestically and internationally, limit its ability to *fight* that war. If America had more allies, the need for an overarching moral justification would've been lessened. Moreover, in the interest of a final victory, the numerous allies would've looked away from such sporadic Abu Ghraibs. It does sound cynical, but thats the way it is. Moral relativism is what we all indulge in, ultimately.

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Kaha thaa na, don't go there...

So that dose of pseudo-profound armchair psychology was in reaction to this news item that the Japanese are angry at their fellow countrymen who were hijacked (and later released) in Iraq. Most tellingly, the only kind word to those poor souls came from a non-Jap, Colin Powell. The public anger in Japan goes deep enough that the govt is asking for $6K in the return fare for flying the people back to Japan. The public anger mostly stems from the individuals' disregard of the Foreign Ministry's travel advisory. Doesn't this statement by the P.M. Junichiro Koizumi sounded so familiar ?

When two freed hostages mentioned wanting to stay or return to Iraq to continue their work, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi angrily urged them "to have some sense." "Many government officials made efforts to rescue them, without even eating and sleeping, and they are still saying that sort of thing?" he said. .

On a related note, read the part about "sneak-attack nation".

On yet another note, I wonder how Indians would've reacted in a similar situation. I'd like to think we'd be more like Americans than the Japanese. Or could we just be apathetic ?

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On Malaria and DDT in Africa

Anyway, DDT got a bad name in the West- partly because the very first environmental book demonized it. That criticism was valid- the Americans used DDT as a pesticide and in those concentrations it really was bad for the ecosystem. Currently, however, it is recommended that DDT only be used in minute quantities and only for in-house spraying. The NYT Magazine article makes the point that if DDT is used in this way it is a very cheap and effective way of fighting malaria. Not to mention that it is probably harmless in those quantities.

But nobody in Africa and poorer parts of Latin America seems to be using DDT. The biggest problem is that the aid agencies, which get funding from western nations where DDT is demonized, don't fund DDT-based work. They prefer mosquito nets (which are costlier and not as effective). Needless to say, the respective govts also like nets because individuals pay for them, instead of the govt funding required for DDT spraying. Finally, the chemical industry would rather that you didn't use DDT. DDT's off-patent, you see.

But things are changing. People are taking second look at DDT. The interesting thing is that India and China are the only places that make DDT. Now that the Africans are getting more and more interested in using DDT maybe we can give it to them for free/cheap. Would be good for humanity and all. Not to mention that we can score some brownie points- might come in useful later.

On a tangential note, AIDS has sucked up a lot of funding money- money which could've gone to malaria, among other things. Personally, I don't mind this- I think AIDS really should get all the funding and exposure we can throw at it. Once it seeps into the general population, it is amazingly hard to get rid of and many cultures (read India and China) have a head-in-the-sand mentality towards all sex-related diseases and especially AIDS. Thus, we might end up ignoring it until its far too late.

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Rich South, Poor North...

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More Iraq WMD Postmortem

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Indian Banks Too Hot ?

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Confessions of a Failed Jihadi

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NYT Magazine on Pakistan

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AirIndia plays it safe

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Compitalists!

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Eeesh..

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Heh!

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Payback time ?

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Economist on America

Classic line ? "Incoherence is one of the luxuries of impotence"- about people who talk about both Somalia and Iraq in the same breath.

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A page from RIAA's book ?

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Wipro on outsourcing

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Safire on Drug Price Control

Umm....in such a case, what's going to stop country X from just letting its generics make that drug and take away whatever money the American company was making ? If the Americans go to WTO for IP violations, well, they started it (by limiting supplies).

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If I win, I will work for world peace

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Post-Cancun Blues

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More on (Indian) Special Forces

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More co-operation across defence services

Well, it could be worse! There are 3 different versions of the new uber-bomber that the US DoD is having built: one each for the USAF, US Navy, and the Marines...

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Spin turning full-circle

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As Rummy said, so be it

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BRICs in 2050

Sometime later, I ended up at the Goldman Sachs website and got the real stuff. To their credit, they had tried the same methods at the 1960 time-point and got a decent enough answer, in terms of their projections matching the current scene. So here's the basic story: in 2050 China, USA, and India will be the 3 (by far) largest economies followed by Russia and Brazil (BRIC: Brazil, Russia, India, China). Each of these economies will overtake the individual G6 countries and the rest of the G6 (G6= G7-USA), put together, at various times. China is already set to overtake Britain and Germany in the next few years and India will be following closely (about 7-10 years behind). Of course, this doesn't mean that the per-capita incomes will be anywhere as close. India's PCI will be $17K in 2050, 35 times today's but still only the same as Portugal's PCI *today*. India also has a younger demographic profile and it will be the only country whose GDP will be growing significantly in 2050. US will still have, by far, the largest PCI.

Now for my two cents :D. Here's my basic assumption, something that others have also mentioned: the last 20 years have changed the rules of the game. The fact that information can be shifted so cheaply and painlessly and that collaboration across vast distances is a snap implies that the barriers of entry, economically speaking, for a country have decreased. Bad phone system ? No problem, get cellphones. Bad manufacturing ? Go for services. Of course, roads and power are still inconvenient imperfections- thats why India will take more time to build up momentum than, say, China. But wait a sec!! What about the current set of rich countries ? Won't they be getting richer as well?

Its almost a cliche that "we'll out-compete them by moving up the value chain". Really ? How high can you go ? Any population can have only so many smart people. What about others who can't climb the value chain to that height ? Where will they go ? Actually, Businessweek's Executive Editor wrote an editorial on precisely this, with a lot of hand-wringing. I can't find the link :-( Anyway, the point I am driving at is: a business' location will become a function of its ability to find the best employees, not the customers (this is a stolen idea, from a book I am currently reading). This directly implies that a country's progress will become, more and more, a function of its population size, provided that it manages to get some basic things right. This importance of population has been true even before- the reason why America is so huge economically is not just that it has enormous resources but also that are a sufficiently populous country (cf. Canada). Of course, America is an exception- their economic policy is also better than most other countries. But the idea still holds.

Another corollary of increased international trade and cheap communications is that that countries don't need to build their economy totally from the ground up- each can start off by competing on its strengths (services, agriculture, tourism etc.). Thus, its easier to play catch-up. And, in per-capita basis, there's a *lot of room* for the BRICs to catch-up. At the same time, the large populations of the BRICs will mean that modest PCI increases will translate to huge GDP increases.

Of course, this is dependent of a huge lot of ifs. Until now, America is the only country to have gotten most things right, consistently, for the past century. They are going to be at the top for quite some time to come. Actually, I'd take America over China as the top-dog anyway.

This sort of ties in with the rather the-sun-is-shining stuff that has appeared in Indian papers recently (1, 2)

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Umm...

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Meta-genomics or "Have Hammer, Find Nail" ?

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Share the pain...

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New England

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Lonely at the top

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