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Publications

Selected work on dynamical systems, stochastic modeling, and rare and extreme events.

Mechanism-Aware Ensemble Conditioning for Data-Limited Emulation of Extreme Events

Explicitly incorporating local directions of strongest finite-time growth into the surrogate provides mechanistic information that is difficult to infer from scarce rare-event examples.

Fortieth Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems2026

NeurIPS'26 oral

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Predicting Generalized Steady States in Aperiodically Forced Mechanical Systems

Efficiently predicts generalized steady-state responses in nonlinear mechanical systems under aperiodic forcing, without long transient simulations.

Journal of Sound and Vibration 6432026
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Non-Destructive Detection of Early Drought Stress via Spectral Submanifold Analysis

Detects early drought stress in soybean plants non-intrusively through a change in their nonlinear vibration dynamics, captured by the evolution of spectral submanifolds (SSMs).

Under review2026
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© 2026 Isabella Thiel

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