Placeholder portrait for Isabella Thiel

Hi, I'm Isabella Thiel!

I'm a Ph.D. candidate at MIT.

I work at the intersection of dynamical systems, stochastic modeling, and rare and extreme events. My research asks how we can understand and predict complex engineering and environmental systems when uncertainty is not just a perturbation, but an essential part of the dynamics. I develop analytical, computational, and data-driven methods for high-dimensional nonlinear systems with persistent or intermittent instabilities, with a particular interest in inexpensive predictive tools for anticipating rare transitions and extreme behavior.

I am a Ph.D. candidate in Mechanical Engineering at , advised by Themistoklis Sapsis. Before MIT, I received my M.Sc. in Applied Mathematics from in 2024, where I wrote my master's thesis in George Haller's group, and my B.Sc. in Mathematics from in 2021.

I won 1st Prize at the MITAI Conference: Age of Agency in Mountain View, CA! I was invited to speak on this year's theme of Trust & Safety in AI, presenting my talk, “What If AI Fails Exactly When It Matters?”. A huge thank you to OpenAI, Hugging Face, and Kensho for judging, their thoughtful feedback, and helping make this such an exciting experience!

Award

I will be presenting a poster in the category AI for Science and Engineering at MIT Generative Impact Consortium (MGAIC) and AI Hardware. The poster session will take place on October 29th, 2026 from 3:30-5:00 PM at the Stata Center

Poster

I am a finalist and giving a talk at the MITAI Conference Research Slam, happening on October 17 in Mountain View, CA. This year's topic is Trust & Safety in AI.

Talk

Our paper “Mechanism-Aware Ensemble Conditioning for Data-Limited Emulation of Extreme Events” was accepted as an oral presentation (best 0.36% of all valid submissions) at NeurIPS 2026 — see you in Sydney, Paris, or Atlanta!

Paper

On October 27, I’m invited to give a talk in MIT’s iMMEC Mechanics: Modeling, Experimentation, Computation Seminar series: What Can Dynamics Tell Us About Extremes We Rarely Observe? — 4:00–4:30 PM, room 3-370.

Talk