next up previous
Next: Limited competitive knowledge; niches Up: Behavior of the news Previous: Two broker case: price

General myoptimal case; discussion

Generalizing to an arbitrary number of brokers and categories, and permitting each broker to myoptimally update both its price and its interest vector, we observe more complex analogs of price wars, in which both prices and interest vectors are drawn into limit cycles. In the spam regime, the system tends to behave very wildly. When tex2html_wrap_inline401 is finite, the interest vectors can display some metastability, but price wars can develop even among brokers with different interest vectors (if they overlap sufficiently).

Price wars are even a problem when tex2html_wrap_inline765 . Consider a system in this regime with n brokers and n categories. Such a system can accommodate each broker's wish to be a monopolist in a single category. If all categories are preferred equally by the users, each broker will ultimately specialize in a single unique category (even when tex2html_wrap_inline401 is somewhat more than 1) [10]. However, if the consumer population slightly favors one category, a system of niche monopolists is unstable, because each broker will cut its price in an effort to own the favored category. Simulations reveal that slightly less favored categories tend to be available much less often than the consumer population would like. Consequently, the total consumer utility is often reduced during a price war, despite the low prices [6].

Intuitively, any sort of economy consisting of myoptimal agents is likely to be plagued with price-war limit cycles. Geometrically, this behavior can be traced to the multi-peaked, discontinuous topology of the profit landscape, which in turn arises from the consumers' preference for the cheapest brokers. Of course, this does not imply that agent economies are doomed to failure. The assumption of myoptimality is unrealistic in several respects, and the fact that price wars occur relatively infrequently in human economies offers some hope.

The economics literature describes several possible mitigating effects that may explain why price wars are less than pervasive in human economies [15]. Expressed in terms of our model, these include explicit collusion among brokers, or tacit collusion -- using foresight to avoid triggering price wars. Other factors thought to hinder price wars include frictional effects (consumers may find it too costly or bothersome to shop around, and brokers may find it costly to update prices or change products too often) or spatial or informational differentiation (i.e. different consumers might value the same good differently, depending on their physical location or knowledge).

These mitigating factors are likely to be weaker in agent-based economies than they are in human economies. Explicit collusion might require fairly sophisticated languages and protocols (and might be declared illegal!) In large decentralized systems, efforts to employ foresight may be hampered by imperfect knowledge of the system state and the strategies of the other agents, and even if these are known perfectly it may be computationally infeasible to predict the future gif. Consumer inertia may be greatly reduced when agents rather than people are doing the shopping, and price updates may be cheaper to compute and advertise. Localization effects are likely to be much smaller for information goods and services than they are for carrots and carwashes. Given these considerations, it is very possible that real agent economies will experience price wars much more frequently than do human economies.


next up previous
Next: Limited competitive knowledge; niches Up: Behavior of the news Previous: Two broker case: price

Jeff Kephart
Fri Mar 6 10:52:26 EST 1998