In his paper, he thinks that there are two groups of about the same population and "goal strength", and the third group is smaller and has higher goal strength. His working assumption is that humans and Tarn are groups 1 and 2, and that group 3 is an unknown. By higher goal strength, he means that this group is more pivotal, things go more the way that group tries to make them, that sort of thing.

He's doing data analysis at about two orders of obscurity beyond what I normally use. His individual analyses sort of divide into three groups: the first, I see what data he's using and understand why he came to the conclusions that he did, and agree that those are valid conclusions to come to. The second, I can see what data he's using, and he states extra sociopolitical assumptions he's making, and given all of that, I agree that those are valid conclusions to come to if the assumptions are correct. The third, he's making assumptions and failing to state them, and I can sort of back-deduce what those assumptions are, but not why he's making them.

It doesn't seem that he's made any math errors, but I'm not completely sure about his sociopolitical assumptions.

2779.255: The Tarn Alliance was an alliance between humans and Brochoah and Tinoori and Ardenti and Deciders. It is when the Tinoori were taught the use of technology, the jumpgates were built.

It was run by a congress to which each of the linked worlds sent representatives; the Ardenti had no representatives to the congress, but had an advisory group which exercised (very infrequently) a veto.


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