Thumbnail Sketches Of Key Congressional Races In 2006

PENNSYLVANIA

Republican incumbent Rick Santorum, a member of the GOP's leadership team in the Senate, is the No. 1 target of the Democrats this year. Polls have consistently shown him trailing Democratic State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr., the son and namesake of a popular former governor. Santorum's role in getting Congress involved in the Terri Shiavo case and in the K Street Project promoting GOP ties to Washington's lobbying community are likely to be key issues in the Keystone State, a battleground in presidential campaigns. President Bush lost the state in both his campaigns, by 5 percent to Al Gore in 2000 and 3 percent to John Kerry in 2004.

RHODE ISLAND

Republican freshman Lincoln Chafee is often out of step with his party, most recently in the Supreme Court nomination of Samuel Alito. Chafee, who supports abortion rights, was the only Republican to vote against the nomination. Not surprisingly, because of his differences with the GOP, Chafee is facing a primary challenge, from Stephen Laffey, a former investment banker who is mayor of the largely blue-collar city of Cranston. Secretary of State Matt Brown, former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse and Carl Sheeler are possible Democratic challengers. Bush lost the state by wide margins in both White House races.

MONTANA

Republican incumbent Conrad Burns won a third term in 2000 with just 51 percent of the vote, a sign of trouble for any incumbent. But Burns' troubles have been compounded recently by news reports about his ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, now cooperating with federal officials in an investigation of political corruption. The state Democratic Party has already begun running TV ads attacking Burns regarding Abramoff. State Auditor John Morrison and state Senate President Jon Tester are seeking the Democratic nomination in a Republican stronghold — Bush won by 20 points in 2004 — that has seen signs of a Democratic comeback with the gubernatorial election of Brian Schweitzer in 2004.

NEW JERSEY

Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez, appointed by Gov. Jon Corzine to the seat Corzine vacated in January, is one of the top Republican targets in the fall. Menendez represented a Democratic stronghold in Congress for more than a decade, but his appointment to Corzine's Senate seat may require him to moderate his politics. In his short time in the Senate, however, he has shown no signs of doing so. He voted against Alito, a native of New Jersey, and is delivering speeches against Bush's "reckless" tax policies. State Sen. Tom Kean Jr., the son of a popular former governor, is favored to win the Republican nomination to challenge Menendez. In some recent polls, Kean has led the Democratic incumbent. Gore and Kerry both carried New Jersey in their presidential campaigns, but it was a battle for both against Bush.

OHIO

The fate of two-term Republican incumbent Mike DeWine is one of the most difficult to forecast. Ohio, the key victory in Bush's presidential campaign in 2004, is ground zero this year in the problems the Republican Party is having with scandals, though DeWine has not been personally implicated. Gov. Bob Taft was convicted of a misdemeanor last year, and Rep. Bob Ney is "Representative No. 1" in the court documents outlining Abramoff's efforts to curry favor from Congress for his clients. But DeWine could benefit from a spirited contest for the Democratic nomination involving Rep. Sherrod Brown and Paul Hackett, an Iraqi war veteran who excited Democrats in a special congressional election last year.

MINNESOTA

Democratic freshman incumbent Mark Dayton announced a year ago that he would not seek a second term, thereby producing one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. This race could measure the popularity of Bush's agenda, with Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy, a three-term House member and administration ally, seeking the GOP nomination. Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar and nonprofit executive Ford Bell are seeking the Democratic nomination in a state that was once a Democratic stronghold but is now competitive. Bush lost the state in 2004 and 2000, but by less than three percentage points on both occasions.

VERMONT

Democratic-leaning independent Jim Jeffords, who left the Republican Party in 2001, is retiring after three terms, and he is likely to be replaced by another Democratic-leaning independent, Bernie Sanders. Now in his eighth term in Congress, Sanders is a Socialist who has a 66 percent approval rating in public opinion polls. His most likely Republican challenger will be businessman Richard Tarrant, whose advisers include Kate O'Connor, a Democrat who headed former Gov. Howard Dean's presidential campaign in 2004. Vermont is among the most Democratic states in presidential elections, having given Kerry a 20-point victory over Bush in 2004.

VIRGINIA

Until recently, Republican incumbent George Allen had been looking past his re-election campaign in Virginia this year to a possible presidential bid in 2008. But last week, former Reagan Navy Secretary James Webb announced he would switch parties and run for the Democratic nomination to challenge Allen. This race could stoke debate about the war in Iraq. Webb, a well-known author, has been an outspoken critic of the president's handling of the war. Allen, on the other hand, has been a strong advocate of Bush's Iraq policy. Webb could encounter some resistance from Democrats in the primary, where he will face Harris Miller, the former president of the Information Technology Association of America. Virginia regularly votes for Republican presidential candidates, but it elected Democrats in its last two gubernatorial elections. And the Democratic leanings of the fast growing Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., could make it more difficult for Allen to win a second term in the Senate.

MARYLAND

The retirement of veteran Democratic incumbent Paul Sarbanes has presented an opportunity for the Republican Party in a state that has long been reliably Democrat. The GOP is pinning its hopes on Lt. Gov. Michael Steele in a state where Democrats hold a nearly 2-to-1 edge in party registration. But Steele is African American and Maryland has one of the highest population percentages of African Americans in the country, 27.7 percent. Steele also is well funded. The announced candidates for the Democratic nomination are Rep. Ben Cardin, former NAACP president and congressman Kweisi Mfume, college professor Allan Lichtman, businessman Joshua Rales, and forensic psychiatrist Lisa Van Sustern.

NEBRASKA

Democratic incumbent Ben Nelson has treaded softly throughout his first term in the Senate, trying to avoid the political wrath of the Bush White House. Most recently, for example, Nelson was one of the first Democrats to announce his support for Alito's nomination. Nelson is the only Democrat in the state's congressional delegation, and his home state gave Bush some of his widest margins of victory in the presidential elections — 33 percent in 2004, 29 percent in 2000. Former Attorney General Don Stenberg, Nelson's opponent in 2000, and former Nebraska Republican Party Chairman David Kramer have announced their candidacies for the GOP nomination.

TENNESSEE

In the contest for the seat being vacated by retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, Rep. Harold Ford Jr. of Memphis is sailing toward the Democratic nomination and will be attempting to become the first African-American to represent a Southern state in the Senate since Reconstruction. Former Rep. Ed Bryant holds an early poll lead over his Republican rivals, former Rep. Van Hilleary and former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker. In a recent poll, Bryant led Ford by about 20 percentage points less than the margin of error.

FLORIDA

After the GOP bagged five Southern Senate seats in 2004, it appeared first-term Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson would face a tough re-election test this year. That now is not a certainty: Republican Rep. Katherine Harris has had a hard time raising money and trails by more than 20 points in recent polls, leading to Republican rumblings, since silenced, about possibly replacing her on the ballot. But Nelson can't take the race for granted in a state where Republicans have ruled in the last few election cycles.

MISSOURI

Republican Jim Talent won a narrow victory over Democrat Jean Carnahan in a 2002 special election, relying heavily on conservative rural votes. This year, with Bush unlikely to play as strong a role as he did four years ago, Talent faces a challenge from Democratic state auditor Claire McCaskill, who lost to Republican Matt Blunt, son of the former acting House speaker, in the 2004 governor's race. A business-academic coalition's petition drive for a constitutional amendment allowing stem-cell research in the state could affect Talent, who has to hold together Republicans on both sides of the issue. He hasn't taken a position on the amendment so far.

HOUSE

Georgia 12th Congressional District

Trial lawyer and former Athens-Clarke County Commissioner John Barrow's defeat of incumbent Republican Max Burns was one of the few bright spots for Democrats in 2004. But the Republican legislature drew Barrow, a Democrat, out of the district last year, setting the stage for Burns to return. Barrow elected to move and run in the new district, setting up one of the top-priority Republican challenge races this year.

Georgia 3rd

The Republican legislature also redrew - and renumbered - the middle Georgia district of Democratic Rep. Jim Marshall. The former Macon mayor has also drawn a former Republican congressman for a challenger: Mac Collins, who left his House seat to make an unsuccessful U.S. Senate bid in 2004. This race also ranks high on the Republicans' priority list.

Ohio 18th

Rep. Bob Ney has vowed to seek a 7th term even if he is indicted in the widening federal investigation that led to the felony bribery conviction of lobbyist Jack Abramoff. But with Ney dogged by the Abramoff scandal, three Democrats have lined up to try to represent the district, located in much of the eastern hill country of the Buckeye State: Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer, Dover lawyer Zack Space and political neophyte Jeffrey Woollard. Ney has denied any wrongdoing and claims he was misled by Abramoff in their dealings, but the Democrats are portraying Ney as part of the "culture of corruption" under Republican control of Capitol Hill.

Texas 17th

An eight-term Democratic House member from the heart of Bush Country, Rep. Chet Edwards can expect a close race against a Republican every two years. The Republicans vying to run against him this year include Tucker Anderson, a former aide to U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions, and Van Taylor, the only Iraq war veteran running for Congress as a Republican.

Texas 22nd

Slated to go to trial on charges of violating campaign finance laws, former Republican House Majority Leader Tom DeLay also faces the battle of his political career back home. He has a serious primary opponent in Republican lawyer Tom Campbell and a likely general election race against former Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson. In one recent poll, 53 percent of those polled in DeLay's district said they wanted someone else to represent them.

South Carolina 4th

Along with two Georgia districts held by Democrats, the Southern seat Republicans would most like to pick off this year is the Up Country South Carolina district held by Democratic Rep. John Spratt, an outspoken deficit hawk. Spratt's likely Republican opponent, state Rep. Ralph Norman of Rock Hill, raised more money than the Democratic incumbent in the last quarter, but Spratt still has more campaign cash in what could be an expensive race.