# Social Science Statistics Blog

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### Recent Entries

- App Stats: Elwert on "Endogenous Selection"
- App Stats: Wasow on "Violence and Voting: Did the 1960s Urban Riots Reshape American Politics?"
- App Stats: Glynn on "Using Post-Treatment Variables to Establish Upper Bounds on Causal Effects: Assessing Executive Selection Procedures in New Democracies"
- App Stats: Bahar on "International Knowledge Diffusion and the Comparative Advantage of Nations"

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23 April 2012

### App Stats: Elwert on "Endogenous Selection"

We hope you can join us this Wednesday, April 25, 2012 for the final session of the Applied Statistics Workshop this semester. Felix Elwert, Assistant Professor from the Department of Sociology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, will give a presentation entitled "Endogenous Selection". A light lunch will be served at 12 pm and the talk will begin at 12.15.

"Endogenous Selection"
Felix Elwert
Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison
CGIS K354 (1737 Cambridge St.)
Wednesday, April 25th, 2012 12.00 pm

Abstract:

> Selection bias is a central problem for causal inference in the social sciences. Quite how central a problem it is, however, is often obscured by ambiguous terminology, needlessly technical presentations, and narrow rules of thumb. This paper uses directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to advance a precise yet intuitive global definition of endogenous selection bias and argue its theoretical and practical centrality for causal inference. The paper clarifies the fundamental structural difference between confounding and endogenous selection, shows that nearly all non-parametric identification problems relate to either confounding or endogenous selection, and argues that the problem of endogenous selection is indifferent to timing. Perhaps most importantly, we illustrate the importance of endogenous selection bias with numerous and varied examples from empirical social research.

This is joint work with Chris Winship.

Posted by Konstantin Kashin at 12:43 PM

16 April 2012

### App Stats: Wasow on "Violence and Voting: Did the 1960s Urban Riots Reshape American Politics?"

We hope you can join us this Wednesday, April 18, 2012 for the Applied Statistics Workshop. Omar Wasow, a Ph.D. candidate from the Department of Government and the Department of African and African American Studies at Harvard University, will give a presentation entitled "Violence and Voting: Did the 1960s Urban Riots Reshape American Politics?" A light lunch will be served at 12 pm and the talk will begin at 12.15.

"Violence and Voting: Did the 1960s Urban Riots Reshape American Politics?"
Omar Wasow
Government Department, Harvard University
CGIS K354 (1737 Cambridge St.)
Wednesday, April 18th, 2012 12.00 pm

Abstract:

> Between 1964 and 1971, more than 750 riots flared up in black neighborhoods across the United States. Scholarship on how the American polity respond to these violent protests is contested. Some scholars argue that urban riots produced a conservative ``backlash'' among white voters, while other scholars find little or no effect. Using a measure that incorporates the location, timing and severity of urban riots between 1964 and 1971, I examine whether increased exposure to urban riots is associated with decreased support for the Democratic party. In the 1964, 1968 and 1972 presidential elections, I find a strong negative relationship between exposure to civil unrest and the county-level Democratic vote share. I find a similar negative relationship between exposure to riots and Democratic vote share in congressional elections between 1968 and 1972. Finally, I find that in counterfactual scenarios of fewer riots the Democratic presidential nominee, Hubert Humphrey, would have beaten the Republican nominee, Richard Nixon, in the 1968 election. As African Americans were strongly identified with the Democratic party in this time period, my results suggest that, in at least some contexts, political violence by a minority group may contribute to a backlash among segments of the mass electorate and encourage outcomes directly at odds with the preferences of the protestors.

Posted by Konstantin Kashin at 12:53 AM

9 April 2012

### App Stats: Glynn on "Using Post-Treatment Variables to Establish Upper Bounds on Causal Effects: Assessing Executive Selection Procedures in New Democracies"

We hope you can join us this Wednesday, April 11, 2012 for the Applied Statistics Workshop. Adam Glynn, Associate Professor from the Department of Government at Harvard University, will give a presentation entitled "Using Post-Treatment Variables to Establish Upper Bounds on Causal Effects: Assessing Executive Selection Procedures in New Democracies". A light lunch will be served at 12 pm and the talk will begin at 12.15.

"Using Post-Treatment Variables to Establish Upper Bounds on Causal Effects: Assessing Executive Selection Procedures in New Democracies"
Adam Glynn
Government Department, Harvard University
CGIS K354 (1737 Cambridge St.)
Wednesday, April 11th, 2012 12.00 pm

Abstract:

> In this paper we propose an adjustment based on post-treatment variables for some standard estimators of the average treatment effect on the treated. Under relatively weak conditions, this adjusted estimator will provide an upper bound for the effect and in some cases lower bounds on p-values. Additionally, this approach does not place a restriction on the outcome variable and allows for multiple mechanisms by which the treatment has an effect on the outcome. We also demonstrate that this adjustment will reduce the estimated effect in a wide variety of circumstances, and therefore, when the assumptions for the adjusted estimator are preferable to the assumptions for the unadjusted estimator, the adjustment can be used as a robustness check. This method is illustrated with an assessment of the effects of using plurality rules for the first multi-party presidential elections in third wave of democracy in sub-Saharan Africa.

This is joint work with Nahomi Ichino.

Posted by Konstantin Kashin at 11:20 AM

1 April 2012

### App Stats: Bahar on "International Knowledge Diffusion and the Comparative Advantage of Nations"

We hope you can join us this Wednesday, April 4, 2012 for the Applied Statistics Workshop. Dany Bahar, a Ph.D. Candidate in Public Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, will give a presentation entitled "International Knowledge Diffusion and the Comparative Advantage of Nations". A light lunch will be served at 12 pm and the talk will begin at 12.15.

"International Knowledge Diffusion and the Comparative Advantage of Nations"
Dany Bahar
Harvard Kennedy School
CGIS K354 (1737 Cambridge St.)
Wednesday, April 4th, 2012 12.00 pm

Abstract:

> In this paper we document that the probability that a product is added to a country's export basket is, on average, 65% larger if a neighboring country is a successful exporter of that same product. We interpret our result as evidence of international intra-industry knowledge diffusion. Our results are consistent with the overall consensus in the literature on technology spillovers: diffusion is stronger at shorter distances; is weaker for more knowledge-intensive products; and has become faster over time.

This is joint work with Ricardo Hausmann and Cesar Hidalgo.

Posted by Konstantin Kashin at 11:44 PM